You're ready. The hard work is done, the assessments are complete and the risks have all been placed on the risk matrix.
Now you're stood at the Board Room door ready to present findings, improvement actions and your ultimate recommendation on whether or not you believe the risks are ALARP and can be tolerated for another quarter.
An hour or so later and the presentations are all done. Your assessment has been accepted and the actions have been taken down. And then, as you are walking out, a quiet voice asks you: "But how did you know?".
All that analysis, those recommendations and your conclusions: how confident are you they're correct? How certain can you really be that you're right?
When it comes to risk management, we're all trying to see the future. To see what's coming over the hill and respond to it in good time so we can enjoy the opportunities of our risk portfolios with none of their negative, painful or harmful side effects. We want to be able to consistently take and manage risk sensibly, consciously and justifiably.
But how do we know we're doing that, and know we're doing it well?
An overlooked part of Risk Management is measuring not only risk management performance but also how confident we can be in our assessments and predictions. So, how can anyone really measure "confidence" in their predictions? How can we possibly assess "certainty" with any...certainty?!
Using some proven techniques advocated by luminaries such as Douglas Hubbard ("How to Measure Anything" - Wiley. 2014), Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner ("Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction" - Penguin, 2016) Resilium's Mark Townend will take you on a brief exploration of "Certainty" and demonstrate why being able to measure where you do and do not have it is a critical part of your Risk and Performance Management toolsets.
We certainly look forward to seeing you there!
Cost
Free
Speaker
Mark left the British Army in 2012 following an expansive career in military Unmanned Air System (UAS) operations, high tech capability integration and strike asset management as a ground commander and liaison for air and aviation platforms. Subsequently he has enjoyed over 12 years in risk, resilience and change management consultancy within a broad range of industries: defence, safety, aviation and digital / cyber security within government and the UK Public Sector.
Mark’s consulting skills, advice, training and innovations in barrier based risk management have been widely recognised across the Defence air safety community, and he has been credited with leading in best practice for air asset risk assessment and risk articulation, particularly in the successful employment of the Bowtie methodology.
When not helping his customers perform at their best Mark can be found out and about with his dog Max exploring new places (also known as getting lost…) and jumping out of planes (under parachute) when the weather allows.
Don't forget to register :)